Hello Rafael.F
Thank you for your answer. I have 35 observations for this facility. The Data:
2005,88 2,07
2006,36 2,29
2006,87 1,7
2007,27 2,09
2007,88 2,4
2008,34 2,57
2009,35 2,56
2009,64 2,71
2009,88 2,9
2010,7 3,1
2010,9 2,89
2011,3 3,05
2011,9 3,2
2012,3 3,3
2012,7 2,74
2012,9 2,93
2013,7 3,5
2013,9 3,58
2014,2 3,8
2014,4 2,65
2014,9 3,05
2015,2 3,22
2015,4 3,28
2015,9 2,43
2016,2 2,8
2016,4 2,89
2016,7 2,5
2016,9 2,9
2017,2 2,25
2017,4 2,27
2017,6 2,51
2017,9 1,82
2018,2 2,15
2018,3 2,33
2018,6 2,45
The first row represents the measurement date (year,month). The second row represents the measurement value. Additional, the executed maintenane actions:
2006,71
2009,04
2010,8
2012,5
2014,3
2015,6
2016,5
2017,05
2017,8
Once again: year,month
I think your idea with ARIMA is quite good and I also think that a linear regression would be very good. However, the "red lines" in the graph above represent maintenance tasks. How could one predict these maintenance actions?
Thanks, Mike