Seeking feedback on a blog post about Bayesian Risk Estimation

https://danielriggins.com/blog/posts/beta_dist/

Hi All, I just wrote this blog post adapting methods taught by @drob about using the Beta Distribution to estimate probability. Would love feedback in general and on any of the following:

  • If you are not already well familiar with Bayesian methods, does the rationale for the workflow make sense?
  • If you are familiar with Bayesian methods, does the selection of the prior seem reasonable? What about rescaling the alpha and beta parameters to make the prior less informative?
  • Does the last figure and its "tug-of-war" analogy make sense?
  • Does it seem reasonable to use pop_under_five as a proxy for the beta parameter since we don't know the true denominator of live births (and hence survivals)?

I'm happy to exchange feedback for something you're working on too.

Cheers!