Trying to calculate a probability


#1

p_cavs_win4 as the probability that the Cavs will win the first four games of the seven game series.

Two teams, say the Celtics and the Cavs, are playing a seven game series. The Cavs are a better team and have a 60% chance of winning each game. I figure I need 4, 7, and 60 in my calculation. Dont think I need the certainty of 1.

p_cavs_win4 <- (4/7) * 60

am i on the right path ?


#2

I think we want 0.6 ^ 4 = ~13%.
That’s the chance that a thing with a 60% chance of happening happens four times in row, ie of sweeping the series. Are you looking for that, or the chances of being the first team to get to four wins?


#3

looking for the probability of the cavs sweeping the series four straight wins.


#4

thanks that worked. and this is the code for the probability of the celtics winning at least one game in the first four.

1 - p_cavs_win4